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Bitcoin and Ethereum derivatives saw a sharp but short-lived risk-off shock over the weekend, before positioning quickly normalized, according to Deribit’s Week 10 analytics report by Block Scholes. The report says BTC briefly slid from about $65K to $63K after President Trump confirmed airstrikes against Iran, then later spiked back toward $70K.
Even with that spot resilience, Block Scholes notes its Risk Appetite Index is now below the December 2025 lows it previously bounced from—suggesting the underlying tone remains fragile.
Spot held up, but sentiment is still cracked underneath
Block Scholes describes a market that’s holding price levels better than sentiment indicators imply. BTC and ETH prices didn’t collapse on the geopolitical shock, but the broader “risk appetite” gauge is now making new lows versus late 2025.
The main takeaway: the tape looks resilient, but positioning still leans defensive.
Funding flipped risk-off fast, then reverted toward neutral
Perpetual swap funding captured the weekend fear most cleanly. The report says BTC funding hit a local bottom on Feb. 28, 2026, as positioning concentrated around shorts, briefly dropping to around -0.01% in both BTC and ETH before recovering back toward neutral.
ETH funding also dipped on the same headlines, but Block Scholes says it didn’t turn as negative as BTC perpetuals.
Futures yields “round-tripped” after the weekend shock
Futures markets also priced in the stress, then largely unwound it. Block Scholes says BTC futures implied yields deteriorated sharply over the weekend, but the move didn’t last and futures returned to trading close to spot.
ETH looked even more resilient in the report’s framing: despite a worse macro and geopolitical backdrop, ETH spot was up about 5% over the past seven days, and implied yields quickly “round-tripped” after the weekend drop.
Options remain defensive: put demand stays elevated
Options positioning still points to protection-first behavior. For BTC, Block Scholes says the volatility term structure remains mildly inverted (even if at lower absolute levels than last week), and 7-day risk reversals show smiles skewed about 9% toward puts.
That put skew has moderated from the weekend lows—consistent with the bounce from roughly $63K to $67K—but it remains meaningfully tilted to downside hedges.
On ETH, the report says the vol term structure is still inverted but far less sharply than a month ago, while risk reversals show strong demand for puts “across the surface.” Block Scholes also notes that for most of the past six months, short-dated skews have been tilted toward puts.
Why it matters for crypto
- Geopolitical shocks are still showing up first in perp funding and short-dated options skew, not just spot.
- The fast normalization in funding and futures suggests traders sold the panic, but the market hasn’t fully rebuilt conviction.
- Persistent put demand implies institutions are still paying for downside protection even when prices rebound.
- ETH’s relative resilience (spot up on the week) alongside defensive skews highlights a market that’s not bullish, just less bearish.
What to watch next
- Whether BTC/ETH perp funding stays near neutral or slips negative again on the next headline-driven risk event.
- If BTC futures continue trading close to spot, or drift back into discounts (a sign of renewed caution).
- Whether short-dated risk reversals keep moderating—or re-steepen toward puts if spot weakens.
- Any follow-through in ETH’s weekly resilience versus its still-put-heavy volatility surface.
Source: Deribit Insights (Block Scholes), “Crypto Derivatives: Analytics Report – Week 10