Content
Bitcoin and broader crypto markets stayed under heavy pressure into late February, according to CoinShares’ latest bi-weekly digest. The report paints a risk-off picture: BTC fell from around $78,000 to roughly $63,000, ETF outflows extended, and derivatives positioning turned more defensive.
CoinShares’ main message is that this is not just a one-day washout. It looks more like a prolonged de-risking phase driven by macro stress, weak flows, and fading conviction across spot and futures.
Bitcoin and Ethereum remain under pressure
In its market summary, CoinShares says BTC slid from around $78,000 at the start of the month to about $63,000 at the time of writing, after touching lows near $60,000 on February 5 in what it describes as the sharpest single-day decline since the FTX collapse. The report also notes the Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 11, signaling extreme fear.
Ethereum has shown even more weakness, with CoinShares citing ETH around $1,860 and more than 60% below its all-time high. The digest also notes that Vitalik Buterin sold over 10,700 ETH during February, with proceeds earmarked for ecosystem development as the Ethereum Foundation enters what it calls a period of “mild austerity.”
ETF flows and miner treasury moves point to broader de-risking
CoinShares says U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF flows remain firmly negative, with roughly $4 billion in outflows over a five-week streak. In the fund-flows section, the firm adds that digital asset investment products saw another $288 million in weekly outflows, marking a fifth consecutive weekly decline, while trading volumes fell to $17 billion — the lowest since July 2025.
The regional split is also notable: CoinShares reports $347 million in U.S. outflows versus $59 million in inflows across Europe and Canada. Bitcoin products drove most of the weakness, while short-bitcoin products saw inflows, a sign that some investors are actively hedging or positioning for further downside.
The market summary also highlights treasury shifts among institutions and miners. CoinShares says Harvard trimmed its Bitcoin ETF exposure while initiating an Ethereum ETF position, and notes that Bitdeer sold its entire Bitcoin treasury to fund an AI infrastructure pivot. Riot also sold $200 million in BTC, with multiple miners converting facilities into AI data centers.
Macro shocks are still dominating crypto direction
CoinShares ties crypto weakness directly to macro instability. The digest says the U.S. Supreme Court struck down tariffs on February 20, briefly creating a risk-on move, but that crypto later gave back gains after Trump responded with a new global tariff framework that was then raised over the weekend. BTC fell back below $64,000 as broader risk sentiment weakened again.
The report also points to a difficult macro mix: hawkish Fed minutes, hotter-than-expected PCE inflation, and weaker GDP growth. CoinShares describes the setup as stagflationary in the near term, while noting that weaker growth could eventually support bitcoin longer term if the Fed ends up behind the curve. The digest also flags the stalled CLARITY Act and says the legislative calendar remains a headwind.
On-chain and market structure data show stress, but also long-term conviction
Several pages of the digest show a split between short-term stress and longer-term holding behavior. On page 8, CoinShares says the share of BTC supply inactive for at least five years has risen steadily to nearly one-third of circulating supply, which it interprets as evidence of long-term saver behavior rather than short-term speculation.
At the same time, page 9 shows unrealized profits shrinking sharply while unrealized losses have reached record highs, and realized profits have collapsed from more than $1.5 billion per day in late 2025 to under $120 million per day. That combination suggests both pain and reduced willingness to sell at current prices.
CoinShares also flags derivatives weakness: page 15 says Bitcoin futures open interest fell to $7.6 billion, the lowest point this year, as investors “completely abandon the basis trade.” Meanwhile, net longs have risen toward levels seen near prior short-term lows.
Valuation indicators are approaching historical recovery zones
Despite the risk-off tone, CoinShares includes some early value signals. On page 16, the firm says bitcoin is the most oversold since the 2022 bear market, and notes that the MVRV value indicator is approaching minus one standard deviation — a zone that historically has preceded recoveries.
That does not mean a reversal is immediate, but it does suggest CoinShares sees valuation stress building toward levels that have mattered in prior cycles. The report stops short of making a timing call, but the setup is clearly on its radar.
Why it matters for crypto
- CoinShares’ data shows pressure is broad-based: price, ETF flows, derivatives, and sentiment are all weakening at the same time.
- U.S. outflows versus Europe/Canada inflows suggest regional positioning is diverging, which could shape where demand returns first.
- Miner treasury sales and AI data center pivots show how post-halving economics are reshaping mining strategy.
- Long-term inactive BTC supply remains high, which may limit forced selling if macro conditions stabilize.
- Oversold and MVRV signals suggest valuation is getting closer to zones where previous recoveries began.
What to watch next
- Whether U.S. ETF outflows slow after the five-week streak and volumes recover from current lows.
- BTC price behavior around the low-$60,000 zone and whether it can reclaim higher ranges with stronger spot participation.
- CME futures open interest and basis-trade activity for signs of returning institutional conviction.
- Macro catalysts this week, including Trump comments, jobless claims, and PPI data flagged in CoinShares’ calendar.
- Whether MVRV and oversold indicators continue to deepen or begin to stabilize near historical recovery levels.