VanEck’s latest Bitcoin ChainCheck is making a simple argument: Bitcoin looks weaker on price than it does under the hood. In its mid-February 2026 report, the firm says BTC has gone through a sharp sentiment and leverage reset, but onchain activity remains relatively resilient, selling from key holder groups is slowing, and miner pressure may be setting up a healthier market structure than the price chart suggests.
Price fell hard, and leverage got cleared out
VanEck says Bitcoin dropped 29% over the last 30 days, pushing sentiment indicators deeper into anxiety/fear territory. The report also highlights a major derivatives reset, with futures open interest falling back to levels last seen in September 2024.
In plain English: speculative positioning got hit fast. VanEck’s framing is that the market has already flushed a lot of leverage, which matters because it often reduces the risk of a disorderly unwind continuing in the same way.
Onchain activity is stronger than the price action suggests
One of the more important points in the report is that network usage hasn’t collapsed along with price.
VanEck says onchain activity remains resilient even after the drawdown, which supports the idea that this move is more about positioning and sentiment than a broad breakdown in Bitcoin usage. The firm specifically contrasts weaker market mood with stronger underlying activity metrics in its summary.
That doesn’t mean everything is strong. The note still describes a stressed market. But the report’s overall takeaway is that Bitcoin’s core activity looks healthier than many traders might assume from price alone.
VanEck says mid-cycle holders did most of the selling — and it’s slowing
VanEck also points to mid-cycle holders as the main source of realized selling pressure.
The report says distribution was concentrated in the 1-to-5-year holder cohorts, but also notes that selling from coins older than one year has slowed meaningfully over the past month. That slowdown is one of the reasons VanEck sees improving conditions beneath the surface.
This is a useful signal because those mid-cycle cohorts often matter during trend transitions. If they stop selling aggressively, downside pressure can ease even before sentiment fully recovers.
Miner pressure is tightening
Another part of the report focuses on miners.
VanEck says miner supply is tightening, and recent mining conditions are adding pressure across the sector. The report’s summary frames this as part of a setup where fundamentals may be improving relative to price, especially if miner stress contributes to supply-side tightening.
The firm doesn’t call a confirmed bottom, but the tone is clear: VanEck sees a market that has already absorbed a lot of pain and may be closer to stabilization than the headline drawdown implies.
Why it matters for crypto
- VanEck is reinforcing the “reset, not breakdown” narrative: leverage and sentiment were hit harder than core Bitcoin activity.
- The slowdown in 1–5 year holder selling is important because that cohort often drives the middle phase of market cycles.
- Miner pressure remains a key variable: if supply tightens while selling cools, market structure can improve even before price momentum returns.
- This kind of report also shapes institutional narrative, especially for allocators deciding whether the move was panic-driven or fundamentally justified.
What to watch next
- Whether futures open interest and leverage rebuild too quickly, or stay muted and support a more stable base.
- If selling from the 1-to-5-year cohorts continues to slow in the next ChainCheck update.
- Whether miner pressure deepens or starts easing as price and hash economics rebalance.
- Any rebound in sentiment indicators alongside resilient onchain activity, which would strengthen VanEck’s thesis.
Source: VanEck Insights – VanEck Mid-February 2026 Bitcoin ChainCheck