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Bitcoin’s derivatives market is still pricing caution, even as spot tries to find its footing after the early-February crash. In Deribit Insights’ Week 8 crypto derivatives report, Block Scholes says sentiment across derivatives and spot looks consistent with a market still sitting around a 50% drawdown from BTC’s all-time high, with no clear catalyst to push prices higher yet.
The reset: four straight weekly spot losses, ETF outflows
Block Scholes notes last week marked a fourth weekly loss in spot prices, alongside $360 million of outflows from ETFs tracking BTC’s spot price. The report frames this as risk appetite staying muted rather than a clean “buy-the-dip” rotation.
Perps: BTC chops sideways, ETH funding slips negative
On perpetuals, the tone differs slightly between BTC and ETH—but neither reads as aggressively bullish.
For BTC, the report says both spot and funding rates traded mostly sideways over the week, with BTC consolidating in a $65K–$70K range.
For ETH, funding rates “spent much of the past week below zero,” which Block Scholes interprets as traders staying positioned for additional downside pressure.
Futures: short-dated contracts still below spot
The report flags a classic bearish tell in futures: short-dated tenors trading at a discount to spot, even after “extreme bearishness” over the weekend eased.
ETH shows a similar setup. With spot trading below $2,000, Block Scholes points to $160 million of outflows from spot ETH ETFs over the past week and says near-term ETH futures also traded below spot.
Options: volatility repriced lower, but the market still prefers puts
In options, the report highlights a meaningful shift since the Feb. 5, 2026 drop to $60K: implied volatility has been repriced lower in both BTC and ETH, even though realized volatility is still described as relatively high.
For BTC, Block Scholes says IV “snapped lower” after the selloff, with volatility compressed around 50% across the term structure.
But the skew message remains defensive. The report says demand for put options continues to outweigh calls in this drawdown environment, although BTC skew is “far less bearish” than it was on Feb. 5—when it hit its lowest level since November 2022.
For ETH, the term structure is described as flat after the early-month spike, while short-dated skew has been slowly pricing out the most extreme put preference—yet sentiment remains “undoubtedly bearish” across tenors.
Why it matters for crypto
- Derivatives are still in “risk-off” posture. Neutral-to-negative funding and futures below spot suggest traders aren’t paying up for leveraged upside right now.
- Options are calmer, not confident. Implied vol has come down since Feb. 5, but skew still leans toward downside hedging via puts.
- ETF flows are reinforcing caution. The report’s $360M BTC ETF outflow figure adds a real-world positioning datapoint alongside derivatives signals.
What to watch next
- BTC’s $65K–$70K range. A clean break could force funding, basis, and skew to reprice quickly.
- Whether futures basis flips positive. Short-dated contracts moving back above spot would be a simple “risk appetite is returning” tell.
- Skew behavior around the next big move. Put dominance easing further would signal less demand for immediate downside protection.
- ETF flow direction. If outflows persist, it can keep a lid on sentiment even if derivatives stabilize.